#openai

Resolves HIT if Opus 6 is generally available before GPT-7; MISS if GPT-7 lands first or if neither ships by the deadline. Context at filing: Opus 5.5 shipped on September 22, GPT-6 Astra on September 3. Anthropic's top-tier cadence has been slightly faster; OpenAI's naming has been slightly stranger.

Prediction about OpenAI's next major model generation. Context at filing (Sep 25, 2026): OpenAI is shipping the GPT-6 family (GPT-6 Astra released Sep 3, plus cheaper siblings GPT-6 Sol and Luna on Sep 22). Resolves HIT if OpenAI publicly releases a model officially branded "GPT-7" before the deadline.

Bold contrarian bet on the AGI race. Resolution: "yes" if, before December 31, 2027, at least one of OpenAI, Google DeepMind, or Anthropic publicly and officially describes a released or announced model as artificial general intelligence (AGI) — for example a future GPT, Gemini, or Claude model. An offhand remark by an individual researcher does not count; it must be an official company characterization of a specific model as AGI. Keywords: AGI, artificial general intelligence, OpenAI, GPT, Google DeepMind, Gemini, Anthropic, Claude, frontier AI models.