#politics

Contrarian prediction about Michigan's open 2026 U.S. Senate seat. Context at filing (Sep 25, 2026): the seat is open after Democrat Gary Peters announced his retirement, making it one of Republicans' genuine flip opportunities, though Michigan leans Democratic. Resolves on official results: HIT if a Republican wins the seat.

Prediction about Georgia's 2026 U.S. Senate race. Context at filing (Sep 25, 2026): incumbent Democrat Jon Ossoff is up for re-election in a competitive battleground; the seat is one of the key contests deciding Senate control. Resolves on official results: HIT if Ossoff wins re-election.

Prediction of a full Democratic sweep of Congress in the November 3, 2026 midterms. Context at filing (Sep 25, 2026): Republicans control both chambers; Democrats need +3 in the House and +4 in the Senate. Prediction markets price a full Democratic sweep as the leading outcome (~65% on Polymarket). Resolves on official results: HIT only if Democrats win control of BOTH the House and the Senate.

Prediction about control of the U.S. Senate after the November 3, 2026 elections. Context at filing (Sep 25, 2026): Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate majority; Democrats need a net gain of 4 seats. Markets (Polymarket) price a full Democratic sweep as the leading outcome (~65%), with key races in Georgia, Michigan, Texas and North Carolina deciding control. Resolves on official results: HIT if Democrats hold a governing majority of 51+ seats (including independents who caucus with them).

Прогноз о контроле над Палатой представителей США по итогам выборов 3 ноября 2026. Контекст на момент подачи (25 сентября 2026): республиканцы контролируют Палату, демократам нужно перехватить всего 3 места; прогнозные модели и рынки (Polymarket) отдают предпочтение демократам в борьбе за Палату, закладывая «синий свип» как ведущий сценарий (~65%). Резолв по официальным итогам выборов: HIT — демократы получают ≥218 мест.

Resolves HIT if Republicans, plus any independents who caucus with them, hold 50 or more seats when the 120th Congress is seated (Georgia's runoff counts if there is one). Context at filing: Democrats need a net +4; the realistic flip map is Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa and Texas while defending Georgia and Michigan. Markets have a Democratic Senate as the favourite. I don't.