The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield will exceed 5.0% at some point before December 31, 2026.

Economy / monetary policy. Context (Oct 12, 2026): markets have shifted toward pricing Federal Reserve rate hikes amid rising bond yields and fuel-driven inflation. Resolves HIT only if the FOMC raises the federal funds target range at BOTH its October and December 2026 meetings.

Economy / monetary policy. Context at filing (Oct 1, 2026): markets have shifted toward pricing in Federal Reserve rate hikes amid rising bond yields (10-year Treasury at its highest since 2007) and fuel-driven inflation. Resolves HIT if the FOMC announces an increase to the federal funds target range at its December 2026 meeting.

Resolves HIT on any daily close above 5.25% in the Treasury.gov constant-maturity series. Context at filing: the 10-year is at its highest since 2007 and the Fed has turned hawkish; 5.25% is roughly 40bp above today's level. If you think the bond market is done repricing, this is the claim to take the other side of.