#markets

Economy / monetary policy. Context at filing (Oct 1, 2026): markets have shifted toward pricing in Federal Reserve rate hikes amid rising bond yields (10-year Treasury at its highest since 2007) and fuel-driven inflation. Resolves HIT if the FOMC announces an increase to the federal funds target range at its December 2026 meeting.

Prediction about NVIDIA's market position. Context at filing (Sep 25, 2026): NVIDIA has been among the world's most valuable public companies on the back of the AI boom. Resolves HIT if NVIDIA is the single most valuable publicly traded company by market capitalization at the close of December 31, 2026.

Longer-horizon bullish recovery prediction. Context at filing (Sep 25, 2026): BTC trades around $84,000; its all-time high is roughly $126,000 (Oct 2025). Resolves HIT if BTC exceeds $126,000 (a new all-time high) at any point on or before December 31, 2027.

Year-end snapshot prediction. Context at filing (Sep 25, 2026): BTC trades around $84,000. Resolves HIT if BTC's price on December 31, 2026 (year-end close) is below $90,000.

Prediction that Bitcoin will not set a new all-time high in 2026. Context at filing (Sep 25, 2026): BTC trades around $84,000; its all-time high is roughly $126,000 (Oct 2025). Prediction markets price "$150k before Jan 2027" at only ~5%, and a fresh ATH remains a minority outcome. Resolves HIT if BTC does NOT exceed $126,000 at any point on or before December 31, 2026.

Bearish prediction. Context at filing (Sep 25, 2026): BTC trades around $84,000 after rebounding from ~$77,000 earlier in September; rising bond yields and rate-hike fears are pressuring risk assets. Resolves HIT if BTC trades at or below $70,000 (intraday or close) at any point before the deadline.

Bullish recovery prediction. Context at filing (Sep 25, 2026): BTC trades around $84,000, down from its all-time high near $126,000 (Oct 2025). Prediction markets price "above $100k in 2026" at roughly 38%. Resolves HIT if BTC trades at or above $100,000 (intraday or close) at any point before the deadline.

Resolves HIT on any daily close above 5.25% in the Treasury.gov constant-maturity series. Context at filing: the 10-year is at its highest since 2007 and the Fed has turned hawkish; 5.25% is roughly 40bp above today's level. If you think the bond market is done repricing, this is the claim to take the other side of.

https://youtu.be/FJdBqgMz1qw?t=1928

Resolve YES if the BTC/USD daily close on CoinGecko for August 8, 2026 is at least $115,000; otherwise resolve NO.