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Reshared from Chris Dines (Inside economics podcast)
0% probability of interest rate cut in USA
Filed
18 Aug 2026
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it was, and the curve now has another one for December. so what made you call 0% in August when the market still had a cut at 40%? oil, labour data, dots? that's the interesting part.
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Filed Claim Resolves Standing
Filed 4 Sep 2026 by @elena_kov
The US 10-year Treasury yield will close above 5.25% on at least one trading day before December 31, 2026.
Resolves HIT on any daily close above 5.25% in the Treasury.gov constant-maturity series. Context at filing: the 10-year is at its highest since 2007 and the Fed has turned hawkish; 5.25% is roughly 40bp above today's level. If you think the bond market is done repricing, this is the claim to take the other side of.
Resolves 31 Dec 2026 Filed 4 Sep 2026 · 41% elapsed · 69 days remaining
PENDING
Filed 1 Oct 2026 by @user_9817
The U.S. Federal Reserve will raise its benchmark interest rate (a rate hike) at its December 2026 FOMC meeting.
Economy / monetary policy. Context at filing (Oct 1, 2026): markets have shifted toward pricing in Federal Reserve rate hikes amid rising bond yields (10-year Treasury at its highest since 2007) and fuel-driven inflation. Resolves HIT if the FOMC announces an increase to the federal funds target range at its December 2026 meeting.
Resolves 17 Dec 2026 Filed 1 Oct 2026 · 27% elapsed · 55 days remaining
PENDING
Filed 25 Sep 2026 by @user_9817
NVIDIA will be the world's most valuable publicly traded company by market capitalization at the close of December 31, 2026.
Prediction about NVIDIA's market position. Context at filing (Sep 25, 2026): NVIDIA has been among the world's most valuable public companies on the back of the AI boom. Resolves HIT if NVIDIA is the single most valuable publicly traded company by market capitalization at the close of December 31, 2026.
Resolves 31 Dec 2026 Filed 25 Sep 2026 · 28% elapsed · 69 days remaining
PENDING
Filed 25 Sep 2026 by @user_9817
Bitcoin (BTC) will set a new all-time high (exceed $126,000) at some point before December 31, 2027.
Longer-horizon bullish recovery prediction. Context at filing (Sep 25, 2026): BTC trades around $84,000; its all-time high is roughly $126,000 (Oct 2025). Resolves HIT if BTC exceeds $126,000 (a new all-time high) at any point on or before December 31, 2027.
Resolves 31 Dec 2027 Filed 25 Sep 2026 · 5% elapsed · 434 days remaining
PENDING
Filed 25 Sep 2026 by @user_9817
Bitcoin (BTC) will close the year 2026 (its December 31, 2026 price) below $90,000.
Year-end snapshot prediction. Context at filing (Sep 25, 2026): BTC trades around $84,000. Resolves HIT if BTC's price on December 31, 2026 (year-end close) is below $90,000.
Resolves 31 Dec 2026 Filed 25 Sep 2026 · 28% elapsed · 69 days remaining
PENDING
In fact at least one interest hike is prognosed by the same guy on the podcast