Filed 4 Sep 2026 by @elena_kov
The US 10-year Treasury yield will close above 5.25% on at least one trading day before December 31, 2026.
Resolves HIT on any daily close above 5.25% in the Treasury.gov constant-maturity series. Context at filing: the 10-year is at its highest since 2007 and the Fed has turned hawkish; 5.25% is roughly 40bp above today's level. If you think the bond market is done repricing, this is the claim to take the other side of.
Resolves 31 Dec 2026 Filed 4 Sep 2026 · 41% elapsed · 69 days remaining
PENDING