4 predictions · 4 open · 0 resolved
Economy / bond markets. Context (Oct 12, 2026): the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to its highest level since 2007 amid rate-hike expectations. Resolves HIT if the 10-year yield trades above 5.0% at any point before the deadline.
Economy / monetary policy. Context (Oct 12, 2026): markets have shifted toward pricing Federal Reserve rate hikes amid rising bond yields and fuel-driven inflation. Resolves HIT only if the FOMC raises the federal funds target range at BOTH its October and December 2026 meetings.
Economy / monetary policy. Context at filing (Oct 1, 2026): markets have shifted toward pricing in Federal Reserve rate hikes amid rising bond yields (10-year Treasury at its highest since 2007) and fuel-driven inflation. Resolves HIT if the FOMC announces an increase to the federal funds target range at its December 2026 meeting.
Resolves HIT on any daily close above 5.25% in the Treasury.gov constant-maturity series. Context at filing: the 10-year is at its highest since 2007 and the Fed has turned hawkish; 5.25% is roughly 40bp above today's level. If you think the bond market is done repricing, this is the claim to take the other side of.