#us-senate

Prediction about control of the U.S. Senate after the November 3, 2026 elections. Context at filing (Sep 25, 2026): Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate majority; Democrats need a net gain of 4 seats. Markets (Polymarket) price a full Democratic sweep as the leading outcome (~65%), with key races in Georgia, Michigan, Texas and North Carolina deciding control. Resolves on official results: HIT if Democrats hold a governing majority of 51+ seats (including independents who caucus with them).

Resolves HIT if Republicans, plus any independents who caucus with them, hold 50 or more seats when the 120th Congress is seated (Georgia's runoff counts if there is one). Context at filing: Democrats need a net +4; the realistic flip map is Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa and Texas while defending Georgia and Michigan. Markets have a Democratic Senate as the favourite. I don't.