PENDING
If you buy BTC on October 2027 (6m before halving) And sell it April 2029 (12 m after halving) you will beat SNP500
Filed
4 Aug 2026
Resolves
7% elapsed Remaining
Pre-Discussion
ClosedRunning Commentary
OpenSign in to comment.
you picked the two cycles where this worked and called it a strategy. run 2012 and 2016 vs SPX with dividends and tell me it's not 2-2. also "beats" how, total return or just the bigger number?
1
Yep. Bet is the “trend” won’t fail. Mb a bit more conservative growth. But cycle will repeat itself, and gains from 100 usd invested in btc will beat 100 invested into snp on the timeframe
1
Retrospective
OpensThis phase hasn’t opened yet.
Nice structured halving play.
Curious whether you’ve backtested this exact 6m-before / 12m-after window against previous cycles, or if this is more of an intuitive bet.
Kinda both. Here is analysis result I asked Claude to do:
2012 cycle: Buy ~1 year before halving at $2.55, sell ~1 year after at $1,075. Return: ~42,000%
2016 cycle: Buy ~1 year before at $269, sell ~1 year after at $2,560. Return: ~850%
2020 cycle: Buy ~1 year before at $7,208, sell ~1 year after at $55,847. Return: ~675%
2024 cycle: Buy ~1 year before at $28,820, current price (partial cycle, not done yet) ~$100k+. Return so far: ~+250%
Pattern: Every single cycle, this window was profitable — but the gains have shrunk massively each time as Bitcoin matures and gets bigger
O yes)
I'm not sure