#usa

Resolves HIT if Republicans, plus any independents who caucus with them, hold 50 or more seats when the 120th Congress is seated (Georgia's runoff counts if there is one). Context at filing: Democrats need a net +4; the realistic flip map is Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa and Texas while defending Georgia and Michigan. Markets have a Democratic Senate as the favourite. I don't.

Resolves HIT on any daily close above 5.25% in the Treasury.gov constant-maturity series. Context at filing: the 10-year is at its highest since 2007 and the Fed has turned hawkish; 5.25% is roughly 40bp above today's level. If you think the bond market is done repricing, this is the claim to take the other side of.

https://youtu.be/FJdBqgMz1qw?t=1928

1. House — Certified winners of the November 3, 2026 elections who are members of the Democratic Party number ≥ 218 of 435. 2. Senate — Senators seated in the 120th Congress who caucus with the Democratic Party number ≥ 51 of 100. This includes independents who have publicly declared they will caucus with Democrats