Resolves hit if Valve releases a new Dota 2 gameplay patch (per the official Dota 2 patch notes / dota2.com/patches) between Oct 19 and Oct 25, 2026, Central Time. Otherwise miss. Source: u/Pantsushooter999 on r/DotA2, post "Patch will drop this week" (https://www.reddit.com/r/DotA2/s/uyEDVNepk1).
Resolves HIT if James Talarico is declared the winner of the November 3, 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Texas by the Associated Press (or confirmed by official Texas Secretary of State results), which would end the streak of no Democratic U.S. Senate win in Texas since Lloyd Bentsen's 1988 reelection. Resolves MISS if another candidate (e.g., Republican Ken Paxton) is declared the winner. Also bearing on the streaks in play: no Democrat has won statewide office in Texas since the 1990s (sources cite 1990 or 1994 depending on the office counted). Deadline set a week after Election Day to allow for the AP call, late-counted ballots and any recount.
Economy / bond markets. Context (Oct 12, 2026): the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to its highest level since 2007 amid rate-hike expectations. Resolves HIT if the 10-year yield trades above 5.0% at any point before the deadline.
Economy / monetary policy. Context (Oct 12, 2026): markets have shifted toward pricing Federal Reserve rate hikes amid rising bond yields and fuel-driven inflation. Resolves HIT only if the FOMC raises the federal funds target range at BOTH its October and December 2026 meetings.
Movies / box office. Context (Oct 12, 2026): a $200M+ domestic opening would place "Avengers: Doomsday" among the biggest MCU debuts ever. Resolves HIT if its reported domestic (US and Canada) opening-weekend gross exceeds $200 million (film opens Dec 18, 2026).
Movies / box office. Context (Oct 12, 2026): "Avengers: Doomsday" (opening Dec 18, 2026) is the year's most anticipated blockbuster. Resolves HIT if its worldwide opening-weekend gross is the largest of any film released in 2026.
Baseball (MLB). Context (Oct 12, 2026): the top-seeded Tampa Bay Rays, who swept the Yankees in the ALDS, face the Cleveland Guardians in the ALCS (series just beginning). Resolves HIT if Tampa Bay wins the ALCS and advances to the World Series.
Baseball (MLB). Context (Oct 12, 2026): the Milwaukee Brewers (MLB-best 103-59 record, NL #1 seed) lead the Los Angeles Dodgers 1-0 in the NLCS. Resolves HIT if Milwaukee wins the NLCS and advances to the World Series.
Formula 1. Context (Oct 12, 2026): Antonelli leads the drivers' championship by roughly 102 points over teammate George Russell with about five rounds remaining. Resolves HIT if Antonelli mathematically secures the title before the final race of the season (the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix).
Formula 1. Context (Oct 12, 2026): Mercedes drivers Kimi Antonelli and George Russell sit 1st and 2nd in the drivers' standings and Mercedes holds a commanding constructors' lead with roughly five rounds remaining. Resolves HIT if Mercedes finishes the 2026 season as Constructors' Champion.
Boxing. Context (Oct 12, 2026): WBC junior middleweight champion Sebastian Fundora is a heavy favorite (around -1000) in his Oct 17 title defense against unbeaten Ermal Hadribeaj in Carson, California. Resolves HIT if Fundora wins by any means.
Boxing. Context (Oct 12, 2026): Dubois (23-3, 22 KOs) stopped Wardley in the 11th round in May 2026 to take the WBO heavyweight title; he is a heavy betting favorite (around -500) in the Oct 17 rematch at The O2 in London. Resolves HIT if Dubois wins by any means (decision, stoppage, DQ, or technical decision).
Resolves HIT if Dune: Part Three's final worldwide gross (Box Office Mojo) is higher than Avengers: Doomsday's once both have left wide release, or at the deadline, whichever comes first. Context at filing: both open December 18, 2026. Marvel takes the opening weekend; I think Dune takes the marathon on legs, IMAX and international. Yes, I know how that sounds.
Economy / monetary policy. Context at filing (Oct 1, 2026): markets have shifted toward pricing in Federal Reserve rate hikes amid rising bond yields (10-year Treasury at its highest since 2007) and fuel-driven inflation. Resolves HIT if the FOMC announces an increase to the federal funds target range at its December 2026 meeting.
Movies / box office. Context at filing (Oct 1, 2026): Marvel's "Avengers: Doomsday" and Denis Villeneuve's "Dune: Part Three" are both scheduled to open on December 18, 2026, setting up a head-to-head. Resolves HIT if Avengers: Doomsday earns a larger worldwide opening-weekend gross than Dune: Part Three.
Motorsport (Formula 1). Context at filing (Oct 1, 2026): after 15 of 23 rounds, Mercedes driver Kimi Antonelli leads the 2026 Drivers' Championship by roughly 66 points over teammate George Russell, following a breakout season. Resolves HIT if Antonelli is crowned 2026 Formula 1 World Drivers' Champion at season's end.
Baseball (MLB). Context at filing (Oct 1, 2026): the 2026 MLB playoffs are underway and the Los Angeles Dodgers are the clear betting favorites (around +200 to +230) as they chase a third straight World Series title (a three-peat, which has not happened since the 2000-2002 Yankees). Resolves HIT if the Dodgers win the 2026 World Series.
Boxing. Context at filing (Oct 1, 2026): Canelo Alvarez returns after more than a year out to challenge WBC super middleweight champion Christian Mbilli in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia on October 31, 2026. Resolves HIT if Canelo wins the fight by any means (decision, stoppage, technical decision, or DQ).
Resolves HIT if no Ferrari driver is classified P1 in any of the remaining 2026 Grands Prix (sprint races don't count). Context at filing: eight rounds left, Ferrari has podiums but no win, and Monza, the one track that suited the car, is gone. I'm a tifoso. I would love to lose this one.
Resolves HIT if Opus 6 is generally available before GPT-7; MISS if GPT-7 lands first or if neither ships by the deadline. Context at filing: Opus 5.5 shipped on September 22, GPT-6 Astra on September 3. Anthropic's top-tier cadence has been slightly faster; OpenAI's naming has been slightly stranger.
Prediction about NVIDIA's market position. Context at filing (Sep 25, 2026): NVIDIA has been among the world's most valuable public companies on the back of the AI boom. Resolves HIT if NVIDIA is the single most valuable publicly traded company by market capitalization at the close of December 31, 2026.
Prediction about Anthropic going public. Context at filing (Sep 25, 2026): there is press reporting on Anthropic's corporate/governance structure and IPO speculation. Resolves HIT if Anthropic completes an initial public offering (shares begin trading on a public stock exchange) before the deadline.
Prediction about Anthropic's next major model generation. Context at filing (Sep 25, 2026): Anthropic's current top line is Claude Opus 5.5 (released Sep 22). Resolves HIT if Anthropic publicly releases a next-generation model officially branded "Claude Opus 6" before the deadline.
Prediction about Google's next major model generation. Context at filing (Sep 25, 2026): Google's current line is Gemini 3.x (Gemini 3.8 Flash released Sep 2). Resolves HIT if Google publicly releases a next-generation flagship model officially branded "Gemini 4" before the deadline.
Prediction about OpenAI's next major model generation. Context at filing (Sep 25, 2026): OpenAI is shipping the GPT-6 family (GPT-6 Astra released Sep 3, plus cheaper siblings GPT-6 Sol and Luna on Sep 22). Resolves HIT if OpenAI publicly releases a model officially branded "GPT-7" before the deadline.
Longer-horizon bullish recovery prediction. Context at filing (Sep 25, 2026): BTC trades around $84,000; its all-time high is roughly $126,000 (Oct 2025). Resolves HIT if BTC exceeds $126,000 (a new all-time high) at any point on or before December 31, 2027.
Year-end snapshot prediction. Context at filing (Sep 25, 2026): BTC trades around $84,000. Resolves HIT if BTC's price on December 31, 2026 (year-end close) is below $90,000.
Prediction that Bitcoin will not set a new all-time high in 2026. Context at filing (Sep 25, 2026): BTC trades around $84,000; its all-time high is roughly $126,000 (Oct 2025). Prediction markets price "$150k before Jan 2027" at only ~5%, and a fresh ATH remains a minority outcome. Resolves HIT if BTC does NOT exceed $126,000 at any point on or before December 31, 2026.